Why Trading Ichiro Makes No Sense At All.

Lately, there’s been a bunch of buzz about whether now is the time to trade Seattle Mariner’s superstar RF Ichiro Suzuki. If you’re one of the people who believe now is the time to move him, you’re completely mistaken.

First, let me say that this is a pointless argument because if we wound up with a better player, than I’d be all for it. We wouldn’t end up with a better player, though, because there just aren’t that many players better than Ichiro.

If you think we should trade him because of his salary (he makes ~$34 million total the next two seasons), then you’re dumb. The Mariners are owned by Nintendo, and are in no way hurting financially. If we were the Kansas City Royals or the Tampa Bay Rays, then I’d understand the salary dump argument. It simply does not apply here.

If you think we should trade him because we can take his salary and spread it around, then you’re dumb. Having three players that are worth 1.67 WAR each is not the same as having one player worth 5 WAR. When you have a finite number of roster spots, one player worth 5 wins by himself is far and away more valuable than three guys who add up to that total. Also, in free agency, the value of player per win comes out to roughly 4.5 million dollars. So, let’s say Player A is worth 2 wins and Player B is worth 3 wins. If we wanted to grab both of them with this money we’re giving to Ichiro, we’d have to conservatively estimate Player A would get a contract worth at least 9 million dollars a year, with Player B getting 13.5 per year. Simple math tells us that this, in fact, is actually more than Ichiro makes (22.5 instead of 18). So rather than take that and spread it around, you’ve really weakened your team and cost yourself more money.

This all assumes that you pay fair market value, which is not always the case.

If you think we should trade him because of his declining skills, then you’re dumb. Ichiro turned 37 last October, and while 37 isn’t the ideal age of one of your two best players, Ichiro’s skills (fielding, hitting for contact, base running) decline extremely well. Skills like power decrease extremely quickly (see Richie Sexson or any other big power bat that strikes out a ton). Ichiro also keeps himself in better shape at age 37 than most 25-year-olds. So to be honest, age is not an issue either.

For more clarification on his non-declining skills, his WAR the last 5 years has been 5.5, 5.5, 4.0, 5.0, and 4.8. Those numbers are pretty insane for someone who most people write off as just a singles hitter. A WAR of 5 isn’t just ok, a WAR of 5 is upper tier. To be worth 5 wins every year isn’t some nice little accomplishment, it’s Hall of Fame type stuff.

If you think we should trade him because he has value and our team isn’t good, then you’re dumb. Despite everything I’ve stated above, he really has no value on the trade market. Skills that do quite well on the trade market (pitching, youth, power) are all things that don’t apply to Ichiro.

So in theory, trading Ichiro makes almost no sense at all. Now, if someone were to blow you away with an offer (they wouldn’t), then I’d seriously consider moving him. However, since that simply won’t happen, thinking about trading Ichiro is a waste of everyone’s time. He’s one of the best players that has ever played for Seattle, and his ability to get on base is better than almost anyone else in baseball. Trading him during another losing season because you think we need to “move on” literally makes no sense, and everyone around you should throw things at you for even suggesting something so dumb.